Page first published on 24th April 2026
On the 28th of February 2026, after the negotiations about Iran's nuclear program between Iran's and US government had been suddenly interrupted, a massive air strike by Israel and the US began against Iran. The aggression quickly evolved into a general attack on military infrastructures as well as civilian infrastructures that the aggressors considered of military importance. Iran immediately retaliated with massive missile and drone lauches not only against Israel, but against American bases in the Gulf area.
As usual, Israel and the US executed targeted assassinations of enemy leaders, starting with the Supreme Guide Khamenei. During the first day of bombings, mostly performed with long range cruise missiles, a girls' elementary school in Minab was hit with more than 170 victims.
The war then escalated to an exchange of hits on energy infrastructures, involving all the countries of the Persian Gulf. Iran blocked the passage in the Straits of Hormuz, and essential "choke point" of the world maritime traffic.
I have chosen as a symbolic representation of the war the destruction of the synagogue of Rafi'-Nia in Teheran (7th April). The Israeli armed forces admitted their responsibility, alleging it was a collateral damage to the attack against an Iranian military leader. Two annotations about this: they admittedly attacked a single person using high power warheads, capable of destroying a building block. So they have admitted their responsibility in an assassination attempt recklessly conducted in a way that certainly would cause large damage and many innocent victims. And there was a Jewish religious place in the vicinity. But seeing the damage it seems possible that the synagogue was the main target, since it was hit and destroyed among the surrounding buildings, which were substantially undamaged. This may make sense: the Jewish community of Tehran is loyal to Iran, not to Israel. The state of Israel does not represent all the Jews of the world, who in many cases oppose it. If they had any respect for their own religion, the Israeli forces would have never attacked a target near a synagogue (an action they have fully confessed), much less the synagogue itself as it might appear from the images.
Lebanon's Hezbollah pro-Iranian organization joined the war by launching rockets on Israel, which started air strikes and then a land invasion of Lebanon.
On 8th April a ceasefire was reached, but Israel kept bombing Lebanon for some days. Without following all the events, as I am writing a fragile truce is being observed, but the Hormuz Straits is still closed as the US is blockading Iran and Iran is retaliating by blocking all traffic.
top of pageIt is significant how a large part of what I wrote (see "War without end" first part) about the previous aggression to Iran, that took place in 2025, still applies.
There is also a very important similarity with the aggression of Russia against Ukraine (see also here).
Israel and USA leadership wanted to seize an opportunity to strike by surprise and hit most of the Iranian leaders during the first night of strikes. They believed that Iranians were ready to rebel against the regime, following the manifestations that it had crushed bloodily at the beginning of 2026. They also counted on Kurdish forces to invade the North of the country to join Iranian Kurds in a land offensive.
This is quite similar to the Russian expectation to have all Russian speaking Ukrainians on their side, as well as many other Ukrainians. A big difference was that Russia did not try to kill Ukraininan leaders at home or in their offices, simply counting on their quick escape. For the Russians, the opportuinitity to be caught was linked to the risk that Ucraine made an agreement with NATO or the EU, making the military option unfeasible.
But in both cases things went in a very different way: the population rallied around the government; Ukrainian leaders stayed in place to fight instead of fleeing, while Iranian leaders died but the regime did not collapse. In both cases, the aggressors had grossly miscalculated their actions.
The Iranian regime is a complex, collective structure and not at all a personalistic system base on a few leaders or just one. Of course Netanyahu and Trump are convinced that all the world is ruled by people like them. But Iran is not. More than that, the Iranian religious tradition is deeply based on the cult of the sacrifice of the leaders. They honor the Imam Ali and his sons Husayn and Hasan, all killed by their enemies. The old Khamenei quietly waited for martyrdom - and he was not at all the one in charge of Iran the way Trumps is, or would like to be, in charge of the US, and Netanyahu of Israel.
Moreover, it is true for any population with a history of independence that a foreign attack causes a national rally around the national flag: even if most Iranians are not favourable to the current regime, they immediately forgot their opposition and closed the ranks with the government. It is also obvious that bombing schools, universities, bridges and power installations is not an attack against the government, but against the nation as a whole. So it is only logical to expect that the whole population stands with their leaders.
In conclusion, both the initial mistakes and the subsequent reckless actions of Netanyahu's Israel and Trump's US were quite consistent with those of Putin's Russia.
The other considerations I made about the previous aggression against Iran still apply, as I mentioned before, see here.
top of pageIt seems that the Israeli and US leaderships in general have a very high opinion of themselves and a very low one of all their enemies. They simply ignored the fact that Iran could have prepared to retaliate asymmetrically to their aggression. Of course Iran cannot compete symmetrically against the US and Israeli air forces. They had prepared, instead, a retaliation strategy involving targeting all the other countries of the Persian Gulf which host American bases.
Right at the beginning of the war, Iran hit an extremely important early warning radar, used by the US to detect missile launches from Iran. They also hit several THAAD systems, effectively disabling the best antimissile defense available to US bases. In the subsequent attacks to the Gulf area and to Israel, Iranian missiles and drones showed that they were able to evade both Israeli and US air defense systems to a significant extent.
As US and Israel started hitting Iranian infrastructures, they began to attack energy infrastructures and industrial sites as well. One of the most significant effects was the destruction of two gas liquefaction trains at the Qatari facility of Ras Laffan. More than that, they finally dropped their true "nuclear bomb", by closing the Straits of Hormuz. This action has disrupted a significant part of oil and gas shipments as well as fertilizers, aluminum and other important material supplies to the rest of the world. An extensive study of the consequences of the closure of the Straits for the world supply chain can be found in the issue 3/2026 "In trappola" of the Italian geopolics magazine Limes.
Apparently the US leadership had not considered the potential actions of Iran and their global effects and had no plan to counter them. It is very easy to create a significant threat to any vessel tring to pass through Hormuz. Destroying all of them is not required, the risk of being hit is enough to force all ships to avoid even trying to pass - since insurance prices have skyrocketed, besides the sheer point of not risking human lives and materials unnecessarily.
Despite their military might, US and Israel are incapable to safely reopen the Straits agains Iran. It would imply the deployment of troops on the ground, at least on the islands of the straits, with heavy losses and a possible complete defeat. Iran must only keep a small threat to severlely limit traffic.
top of pageThe aggression against Iran by US and Israel is absolutely illegal with respect of the Charter of the United Nations. The aggressors have not even attempted to adequately motivate their actions, much less following the procedures foreseen in the Charter. This war is therefore as illegal and unjustified as, for instance, the aggression of Russia against Ukraine started in 2022, which is still going on.
Since no act of aggression had been made by Iran, only a "threat to peace" could have been invoked. But this did not happen: no proof that the Iran was actually threatening world peace was ever given before the attack, in the proper place - that is, the organs of the United Nations.
Being the US a permanent member of the Security Council, no response to this violation of the Charter can be expected from the UN.
From a purely ideal point of view, it is noticeable that severe sanctions have been applied to Russia by several countries because of the aggression against Ukraine, even if these actions have been taken outside of the UN procedures. No one can expect that any country would even try to apply sanctions to the US, for several reasons. Therefore the so-called "international law" has shown its total inadequacy in this case, as well as it has in many others.
If we consider other actions of Israel, extensively described also in the previous "War without end" page, even without any reference to this recent aggression there are enough motivations for the European Union to suspend the association agreement with Israel, as requested in the official petition that Eurinome supports.
top of pageIt seems that Israel does not want to end this war. In fact, Israel is committed to the "war without end", while the US government desperately needs a conclusion, but is unable to find it. This is a war without end in both the meanings of the word, no conclusion and no purpose, at least for the US. For Netanyahu personally it has a purpose, in the sense that he needs a perpetual status of war to keep his seat as Israeli premier and his personal freedom, threatened by judicial initiatives in Israel. The Israeli government as a whole also needs to avoid the internal fragmentation of the state of Israel, which nowadays can find unity only in front of an existential threat. For the US president Trump it never had a purpose, besides striving to keep Israel under control - but in fact it is Israel that has been keeping the US under control till now. Trump cannot afford a long war without the risk, or better the certainty, of losing the next elections and in any case losing virtually all the support of his own constituency. Let us not forget that a fundamental point of his electoral promises was to keep the US out of long and costly wars in remote areas.
The Asian countries are the most damaged by this conflict, but they do not seem to be doing anything constructive to end it, with the remarkable exception of Pakistan, which is hosting the attempted negotations. China is probably counting on the provisions it had already taken before it began, and is just waiting for the US to back down as it did in Afghanistan.
Europe, meaning the geographica area, since the EU is not a geopolitical subject, is giving a dismal show of ineptitude, with a few exceptions. In consideration of the damage they are taking, the European countries should simply do what some have done: forbid the use of the US bases and close their airspaces, which would impair the possibility to continue the war for the US. But they are too weak and too inept to do that, except Spain and maybe France. All the others, apart from some lip service , saying that "this is not our war" (UK, Italy, Germany), are not doing anything, even if Trump is scolding them for being uncooperative 8he would like them to join his side). They are just inert. The initiative for keeping the Hormus straits open once the war has finished is just pathetic: it is just to show that they are doing something, while they are actually doing nothing. The only one with a clear position is Spanish premier Sanchez, who is also acting at all levels, including the above mentioned demand for the suspension of the EU agreement with Israel. The position of France is not completely clear, while it is noticeable that Italy and Germany are opposing the suspension of the agreement with Israel.
So it seems that the whole world is slidding towards a global economical and political crisis and no one is able to stop it. The world leading nation is now led by a impulsive, unpredictable, foul mouthed, narcissistic individual, following the impulses of a perfidious, cruel and merciless criminal wanted by the International Criminal Court. The second world power does not want to take the lead, preferring to wait for the self destruction of the first, while the possible third power (a united Europe, which actually does not exist) is led by an inept ruling class.
Let us hope they do not destruct the world along with themselves.
Alberto Cavallo - 24th April 2026
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